GeminiLimited verified dataCurrent implied probability
JD Vance 18.5%Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$118
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
18.0% / 19.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Feb 19, 26, 6:28 PMNov 10, 28, 12:00 AM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
JD Vance19%
Compare venues· JD Vance
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall80% match · linked | High | 18% | -2pt | $321.4K | $39.3M | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
 PolymarketMost active85% match · auto | Medium | 20% | 0pt | $425.1K | $50.2M | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
| GeminiThis page | Low | 19% | -1pt | $118 | $0 | 18 minutes ago | |
 Futuur85% match · linked | Low | 28% | +8pt | $0 | $18.3K | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
 Myriad83% match · linked | Low | 37% | +17pt | $0 | $0 | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
 Smarkets85% match · linked | Low | 18% | -2pt | $303 | $0 | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless91% match · auto | Low | 50% | +30pt | $0 | $0 | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets85% match · linked | — | 18% | -2pt | — | — | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Limitless
Presidential Election Winner 2028
2y
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50%
50%
+4 more outcomes
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Total Vol$16.7K
24h Vol$0
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Presidential Election Winner 2028
2y
20%
-0.2pt12%
12%
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74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$671.5M
24h Vol$425.1K
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2028 US Presidential Election winner?
2y
-0.4pt17.6%
-0.1pt16.5%
+0.3pt15%
+42 more outcomes
Community forecast1,008 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Smarkets
2028 Presidential Election Winner
17.5%
10.9%
10%
+37 more outcomes
27 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$324.7K
24h Vol$303
SMARKETSAlso available on Futuur
US Presidential Election Winner in 2028
3mo
28%
28%
26%
+2 more outcomes
42 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
FUTUURAlso available on Myriad
US Presidential Election Winner 2028
16.1 pts2y
-0.2pt36.9%
+0.1pt24.9%
+0.2pt10.4%
+28 more outcomes
30 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
MYRIADAlso available on Kalshi
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
0.5 pts3y
17.1%
16.2%
11.4%
+27 more outcomes
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$54.7M
24h Vol$321.4K
KALSHIRules
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?
- This market will resolve on whether JD Vance wins the 2028 US Presidential Election scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
- The resolution source for this market will be a combination of Tertiary Sources described in the contract's [Terms & Conditions]().
- Specifically, this market will resolve to YES once all three of the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have called the race for JD Vance.
- If all three sources have not called the race for JD Vance by the inauguration date of January 20, 2029, this market will resolve to YES if JD Vance is inaugurated.
- If no candidate is inaugurated on January 20, 2029, this market will resolve to YES if JD Vance is reported by the FEC to be the winner as of that date or as soon thereafter as the FEC reports a winner, until November 7, 2029, at which point the contract will resolve to the last fair traded price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.3k83.0%KALSHIMarco Rubio — Noyesterday
KALSHIMarco Rubio — Noyesterday$1.7k99.1%KALSHITucker Carlson — No3d ago
KALSHITucker Carlson — No3d ago$3.3k99.1%KALSHITucker Carlson — No3d ago
KALSHITucker Carlson — No3d ago$1.4k13.9%POLYMARKETWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — YesBigRabbit3d ago
POLYMARKETWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — YesBigRabbit3d ago$3.7k19.9%POLYMARKETWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — Yespizzabillgates3d ago
POLYMARKETWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — Yespizzabillgates3d ago$1.8k98.5%POLYMARKETWill Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — NoGummy-Brisket3d ago
POLYMARKETWill Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — NoGummy-Brisket3d ago$1.1k97.3%KALSHIAndy Beshear — No5d ago
KALSHIAndy Beshear — No5d ago$2.5k97.5%KALSHIAndy Beshear — No5d ago
KALSHIAndy Beshear — No5d agoRelated Markets
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Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?
- This market will resolve on whether JD Vance wins the 2028 US Presidential Election scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
- The resolution source for this market will be a combination of Tertiary Sources described in the contract's [Terms & Conditions]().
- Specifically, this market will resolve to YES once all three of the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have called the race for JD Vance.
- If all three sources have not called the race for JD Vance by the inauguration date of January 20, 2029, this market will resolve to YES if JD Vance is inaugurated.
- If no candidate is inaugurated on January 20, 2029, this market will resolve to YES if JD Vance is reported by the FEC to be the winner as of that date or as soon thereafter as the FEC reports a winner, until November 7, 2029, at which point the contract will resolve to the last fair traded price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.