Will the Swift Centre beat Polymarket?
GeopolitikOne-OffNaher OstenRussland / UkraineTechnikWirtschaft & Unternehmen2MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 78.5%
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Aktualisiert vor 39 Minuten
4. Feb. 26, 03:17 UTC1. Jan. 27, 03:13 UTC
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Resolves YES if Swift Centre has a better Brier score than Polymarket, across their five forecasts.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Context: Swift Centre claims that Polymarket is not the ultimate source of truth and that their forecasters can beat Polymarket.
- https://www.swiftcentre.org/publicforecasts/yk77y2zct07ttcl00lmuk2x2s629fh
- Here were their five forecasts:
- 1) The Swift Centre forecasters saw a ~4% chance of the United States acquiring Greenland in 2026, distinctly lower than the 12% that was on the relevant Polymarket question.