Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 60.1%
Prognostiker
43
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 22 Minuten
24. Sept. 25, 16:51 UTC24. Sept. 27, 16:25 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
Polymarket and Kalshi are currently hotly competing for prediction market dominance, and are about the same size.
- This resolves once that is no longer the case, and one is dramatically more successful than the other.
- [image]I don't want to define a single metric since that can be goodharted, but I'm looking for roughly a 90/10 split or better of general prediction market mindspace and finance-space.
- (Between them only.
- The emergence of a third competitor doesn't factor in.)
- For comparison I would say that Kalshi seems on vibes to be pretty close to beating PredictIt, or possibly has already.