PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitJohn Brennan 28%-0.5%Führend unter 24 Optionen
Marktqualitat
64 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
394,4 €
Liquidität
194.352,7 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
3.3% / 3.9%
Spread
18.2%
Breiter Spread7d-Änderung
+1.3%
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Minuten
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
John Brennan28%
Plattformen vergleichen· John Brennan
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBeste insgesamt76% Übereinstimmung · geprüft | Hoch | 36% | +8pt | 1379,9 € | 315.314,5 € | vor 29 Minuten | Öffnen → |
| PolymarketDiese Seite | Mittel | 28% | 0pt | 394,4 € | 194.352,7 € | vor 9 Minuten |
Auch verfügbar auf Kalshi
Who will be arrested in 2026?
0.3%5Mon
36%
+5.0%26%
23%
+21 weitere Ergebnisse
91 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen907.514,7 €
24h-Volumen1379,9 €
KALSHIRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$4492. Juli25T Daten26. Juli
Verwandte Märkte
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.