KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGrob kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitBarack Obama 6%+0.3%Führend unter 24 Optionen
Marktqualitat
91 / 100
Hohe Qualität24h-Volumen
1379,8 €
Liquidität
315.282,8 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
6.0% / 6.1%
Spread
1.7%
Enger SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 21 Minuten
23. Juli 25, 14:001. Jan. 27, 4:59
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Barack Obama6%
Plattformen vergleichen· John Brennan
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiDiese SeiteBeste insgesamt | Hoch | 36% | +8pt | 1379,8 € | 315.282,8 € | vor 21 Minuten | |
 Polymarket76% Übereinstimmung · geprüft | Mittel | 28% | 0pt | 394,4 € | 196.846,4 € | vor 21 Minuten | Öffnen → |
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Who will be arrested before 2027?
0.3%
-1.0%28%
+1.0%26%
20%
+21 weitere Ergebnisse
64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen196.183,3 €
24h-Volumen394,4 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
If Gavin Newsom is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Clarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied.
- To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.
- If Lee Jun-seok is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Bill Clinton is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Anthony Fauci is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$1.6k2. Juli25T Daten26. Juli
Verwandte Märkte
Maduro Prison Time?
1403,6 €No prison time: 34%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will an official mugshot of Anthony Fauci be published before his death?
175,8 €Ja: 8.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat is true about the absence of Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. (Add Answers)
31,1 €Kean is in a permanent vegetative state: 0%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
How many senators will vote for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?
19,3 €52: 42%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the SCOTUS hear a case about flag burning before 2027?
10,3 €Ja: 8%KALSHI
KALSHI
Comey indictment reinstated on appeal before 2027?
6,9 €Ja: 12%KALSHI
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If Gavin Newsom is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Clarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied.
- To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.
- If Lee Jun-seok is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Bill Clinton is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Anthony Fauci is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.