PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitJa 3%
Marktqualitat
44 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
138,9 €
Liquidität
18.454,7 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
2.8% / 3.1%
Spread
10.7%
Breiter Spread7d-Änderung
-0.5%
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
5. Nov. 25, 18:4131. Dez. 26, 0:00
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Yes3%
Volumentrend
$1583. Juli24T Daten26. Juli
Verwandte Märkte
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
853,4 €Ja: 74%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Who will be arrested before 2027?
306,5 €Mahmoud Khalil: 47%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
What will be Ghislaine Maxwell's fate, per Wikipedia as of 2027-07-01?
44 €Alive and in custody: 88.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the ICC issue an arrest warrant against a sitting world leader before 2030?
196,9 €Ja: 88.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?
63,4 €Ja: 75.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by which date?
8,8 €December 31,: 14%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETIn diesen Themen aktiv
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.