Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseFuturama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues 34.8%Führend unter 5 Optionen
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Veraltet30. Dez. 25, 16:25 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?
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KalshiRegeln
Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI and this metaculus question.
- Other versions of this question use far future dates; this one instead attempts to forecast the Metaculus opinion as of the end of 2027.
- This question will resolve PROB in proportion to the Metaculus forecast at that time.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/20683)AI-Fizzle.
- In this scenario, AI “runs out of steam” fairly soon.
- AI still has a significant impact on the world (so it’s not the same as a “cryptocurrency fizzle”), but relative to current expectations, this would be considered a disappointment.
