A Scott Aaronson style device predicting human actions and internal monologue demonstrated by the end of 2050.
One-OffKIWissenschaftManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 59.8%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Verzogert11. Juni 25, 03:26 UTC31. Dez. 50, 23:59 UTC
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This market resolves to 'Yes' if, by the end of 2050, a device or procedure is demonstrated or well documented in peer reviewed studies that can routinely predict an individual's specific physical actions and nearly perfect internal monologue over a two-minute interval based on starting conditions.
- It is acceptable if the prediction cannot happen in real time, so long as it is clearly provable the prediction received no data beyond initial starting conditions.
- The system must generalize and not work only under contrived conditions.
- It cannot result in death/clear neurological damage/maiming.
