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3485 mercados relacionados acompanhados entre fontes para IA.

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Volume 24h

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Guias relacionados

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Which company has best AI model end of June?

Which company has best AI model end of June?

17d
Anthropic
Anthropic
+3.4%89%
Google
Google
-1.0%10%
OpenAI
OpenAI
-0.4%3%

+16 mais resultados

73 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidez
Volume total13,5 M US$
Volume 24h189,7 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

1.0%6m
↑$1.0T
↑$1.0T
+2.4%100%
↑$1.1T
↑$1.1T
+1.3%96%
↑$1.25T
↑$1.25T
+1.0%90%

+10 mais resultados

89 • Alta qualidadeSpread moderadoAlta liquidezPerto da resolução
Volume total1,5 M US$
Volume 24h107,1 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

17d
Anthropic
Anthropic
-1.5%91%
Google
Google
6%
OpenAI
OpenAI
+0.3%2%

+16 mais resultados

73 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezPerto da resolução
Volume total1,7 M US$
Volume 24h20,3 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
OpenAI IPO by...?

OpenAI IPO by...?

0.3%6m
December
December
+4.5%49%
September 30,
September 30,
+1.0%12%
August
August
+1.9%5%

+3 mais resultados

73 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade
Volume total2 M US$
Volume 24h18,6 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

17d
No IPO by June 30, 2026
No IPO by June 30, 2026
99%
<100B
<100B
0%
100–200B
100–200B
0%

+4 mais resultados

73 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezPerto da resolução
Volume total1,7 M US$
Volume 24h5,1 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Anthropic IPO by __?

Anthropic IPO by __?

1a
December 31,
December 31,
90%
October 31,
October 31,
69%
September 30,
September 30,
16%

+3 mais resultados

89 • Alta qualidadeSpread moderadoAlta liquidezPerto da resolução
Volume total272,3 mil US$
Volume 24h6,3 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which company has best AI model end of July?

Which company has best AI model end of July?

1m
Anthropic
Anthropic
81%
Google
Google
-0.3%9%
OpenAI
OpenAI
-0.2%7%

+23 mais resultados

73 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidez
Volume total93,2 mil US$
Volume 24h6,2 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
GPT-5.6 released by...?

GPT-5.6 released by...?

2.7%1m
July 31
July 31
-1.1%96%
June 30
June 30
+3.0%92%
June 23
June 23
-2.0%54%

+6 mais resultados

73 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezPerto da resolução
Volume total889,2 mil US$
Volume 24h19 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which company has the best Coding AI model end of June?

Which company has the best Coding AI model end of June?

0.3%17d
Anthropic
Anthropic
-0.1%96%
OpenAI
OpenAI
-0.1%3%
xAI
xAI
+0.3%1%

+26 mais resultados

73 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezPerto da resolução
Volume total65,8 mil US$
Volume 24h7,1 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

6.0%6m
No IPO by December 31, 2026
No IPO by December 31, 2026
-6.0%51%
750B–1T
750B–1T
-0.1%13%
1T–1.25T
1T–1.25T
+1.6%12%

+4 mais resultados

89 • Alta qualidadeSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade
Volume total1,8 M US$
Volume 24h5,6 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

4.0%6m
Sim
Sim
+0.0%8%
Não
Não
-0.0%92%
73 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezPerto da resolução
Volume total1 M US$
Volume 24h12,6 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

15.5%6m
↑$900B
↑$900B
89%
↑$1.0T
↑$1.0T
+1.0%81%
↑$1.25T
↑$1.25T
+10.0%79%

+12 mais resultados

89 • Alta qualidadeSpread moderadoAlta liquidez
Volume total623,5 mil US$
Volume 24h9,5 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Best AI model on June 13?

Best AI model on June 13?

7.1%4h
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
+7.1%88%
Other
Other
-9.4%9%
claude-opus-4-6
claude-opus-4-6
-0.1%0%

+3 mais resultados

89 • Alta qualidadeSpread moderadoAlta liquidezPerto da resolução
Volume total158,9 mil US$
Volume 24h28,5 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which company has second best AI model end of June?

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

17d
Anthropic
Anthropic
-1.0%87%
Google
Google
+4.5%11%
OpenAI
OpenAI
+0.7%3%

+16 mais resultados

64 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidez
Volume total596,4 mil US$
Volume 24h4,2 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)

0.7%1a
600B+
600B+
+1.5%95%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2027
3%
300–400B
300–400B
+0.3%1%

+4 mais resultados

64 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezPerto da resolução
Volume total356,9 mil US$
Volume 24h2,8 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

4.0%17d
June 23
June 23
+7.5%27%
No release by June 30
No release by June 30
-0.3%18%
June 30
June 30
14%

+27 mais resultados

77 • Alta qualidadeSpread desconhecidoAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade
Volume total109,2 mil US$
Volume 24h5,6 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
When will GPT-5.6 be released?

When will GPT-5.6 be released?

7.0%15d
June 22–June 28
June 22–June 28
-0.4%56%
June 15–June 21
June 15–June 21
+7.0%30%
Not released by June 28
Not released by June 28
-6.1%12%

+5 mais resultados

89 • Alta qualidadeSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade
Volume total148,8 mil US$
Volume 24h5,9 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which company has the third best AI model end of June?

Which company has the third best AI model end of June?

1.5%17d
Anthropic
Anthropic
+1.5%89%
Google
Google
8%
OpenAI
OpenAI
-0.9%2%

+26 mais resultados

91 • Alta qualidadeSpread apertadoAlta liquidez
Volume total98 mil US$
Volume 24h4,3 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Best Chinese AI Company end of June?

Best Chinese AI Company end of June?

3.7%17d
Alibaba
Alibaba
-3.0%80%
Z.ai
Z.ai
+2.0%18%
Moonshot
Moonshot
+3.7%5%

+22 mais resultados

73 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidez
Volume total40,8 mil US$
Volume 24h6,7 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

5.5%1a
$2.5–$2.75T
$2.5–$2.75T
-0.5%16%
$1.25–$1.5T
$1.25–$1.5T
-0.5%16%
<$1.25T
<$1.25T
+5.5%14%

+7 mais resultados

73 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidez
Volume total19,3 mil US$
Volume 24h10,7 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

0.1%17d
Anthropic
Anthropic
+77.0%100%
OpenAI
OpenAI
+1.8%5%
DeepSeek
DeepSeek
1%

+8 mais resultados

64 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezPerto da resolução
Volume total1,6 M US$
Volume 24h1,7 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30?

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30?

4.0%18d
↑ $925B
↑ $925B
+9.9%100%
↑ $1.0T
↑ $1.0T
+12.6%100%
↑ $975B
↑ $975B
+1.3%100%

+9 mais resultados

64 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezPerto da resolução
Volume total377,8 mil US$
Volume 24h3,8 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?

Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?

0.3%17d
Google
Google
-7.0%49%
Anthropic
Anthropic
+2.0%29%
OpenAI
OpenAI
+3.0%17%

+26 mais resultados

64 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade
Volume total202,3 mil US$
Volume 24h3,6 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

6m
Manifold Markets
<30%
0.9%
Manifold Markets
30-40%
0.9%
Manifold Markets
40-50%
0.9%

+5 mais resultados

Previsão da comunidade38 previsoresTipo: multiple choice
Volume total94,5 mil US$
Volume 24h44,4 mil US$
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?

5.0%18d
↑$850B
↑$850B
-14.5%39%
↓$800B
↓$800B
+1.3%31%
↑$875B
↑$875B
-4.0%20%

+9 mais resultados

64 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade
Volume total197,8 mil US$
Volume 24h1,5 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

1.1%1a
1.8T+
1.8T+
-0.5%48%
1.2–1.5T
1.2–1.5T
-0.5%18%
1.5–1.8T
1.5–1.8T
-0.1%18%

+4 mais resultados

64 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade
Volume total147,7 mil US$
Volume 24h1,1 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

19d
Manifold Markets
Perplexity
3.4%
Manifold Markets
Anthropic
1.1%
Manifold Markets
Mistral
2.9%

+3 mais resultados

Previsão da comunidade48 previsoresTipo: multiple choice
Volume total151,9 mil US$
Volume 24h1,3 mil US$
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

3.7%6m
Sim
Sim
+0.0%98%
Não
Não
-0.0%2%
91 • Alta qualidadeSpread apertadoAlta liquidezPerto da resolução
Volume total63,8 mil US$
Volume 24h4,4 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

2.0%1m
July 31
July 31
-1.4%95%
June 30
June 30
84%
June 26
June 26
+0.5%68%

+3 mais resultados

61 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploLiquidez médiaPerto da resolução
Volume total51,1 mil US$
Volume 24h6,8 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
AI bubble burst by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

3.0%6m
2026
2026
-3.0%22%
2025
2025
+0.1%0%
March 31, 2026
March 31, 2026
-0.1%0%
68 • Qualidade médiaSpread moderadoLiquidez média
Volume total2,9 M US$
Volume 24h2 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which company has the third best AI model end of July?

Which company has the third best AI model end of July?

1.5%1m
Anthropic
Anthropic
-1.5%65%
Google
Google
+7.0%20%
OpenAI
OpenAI
-3.0%7%

+23 mais resultados

80 • Alta qualidadeSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade
Volume total7,6 mil US$
Volume 24h4,8 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which company has the #3 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

Which company has the #3 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

10.0%1m
Anthropic
Anthropic
-10.0%66%
Google
Google
+12.0%22%
OpenAI
OpenAI
+2.0%6%

+23 mais resultados

80 • Alta qualidadeSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade
Volume total8,8 mil US$
Volume 24h3,1 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

2a
Trump bans abortion nationwide
Trump bans abortion nationwide
4.4%
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
11%
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
1.6%

+248 mais resultados

Previsão da comunidade1,631 previsoresTipo: multiple choice
Volume total1 M US$
Volume 24h479,2 US$
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

5.0%17d
30%+
30%+
+0.7%100%
35%+
35%+
+2.6%100%
45%+
45%+
-6.5%58%

+2 mais resultados

52 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploLiquidez médiaPerto da resolução
Volume total342,6 mil US$
Volume 24h2,3 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

6m
Manifold Markets
ARC-AGI
13%
Manifold Markets
FrontierMath
5.7%
Manifold Markets
Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)
48.1%

+3 mais resultados

Previsão da comunidade6 previsoresTipo: multiple choice
Volume total9,6 mil US$
Volume 24h6,5 mil US$
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?

New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?

0.7%17d
June 30
June 30
+0.7%92%
June 19
June 19
-4.0%18%
June 12
June 12
-1.6%2%

+4 mais resultados

79 • Alta qualidadeSpread apertadoLiquidez médiaPerto da resolução
Volume total301,9 mil US$
Volume 24h2,1 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

6m
Anthropic
Anthropic
67%
Google
Google
+2.0%18%
OpenAI
OpenAI
-1.0%10%

+23 mais resultados

80 • Alta qualidadeSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade
Volume total7,7 mil US$
Volume 24h812,2 US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

6m
Earbuds/Headphones
Earbuds/Headphones
+2.5%32%
Clip-on device for clothing
Clip-on device for clothing
+0.5%21%
Glasses
Glasses
19%

+7 mais resultados

68 • Qualidade médiaSpread moderadoLiquidez médiaAlta ambiguidade
Volume total308 mil US$
Volume 24h1,2 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

6.0%1a
Anthropic
Anthropic
-0.1%76%
OpenAI
OpenAI
+0.1%24%
79 • Alta qualidadeSpread apertadoLiquidez média
Volume total158,3 mil US$
Volume 24h4,9 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which company has #1 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

Which company has #1 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

0.5%1m
Anthropic
Anthropic
+0.5%78%
Google
Google
-3.0%7%
OpenAI
OpenAI
+0.5%6%

+23 mais resultados

80 • Alta qualidadeSpread moderadoAlta liquidez
Volume total6,5 mil US$
Volume 24h1,4 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?

19d
Manifold Markets
The Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic
100%
Manifold Markets
The Pentagon declares Anthropic a "supply chain risk"
100%
Manifold Markets
The Pentagon invokes the Defense Production Act
6.7%

+23 mais resultados

Previsão da comunidade592 previsoresTipo: multiple choice
Volume total364,2 mil US$
Volume 24h350 US$
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]

1a
Manifold Markets
Kill everyone - Liron
4%
Manifold Markets
Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman
8.8%
Manifold Markets
teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus
34.5%

+36 mais resultados

Previsão da comunidade301 previsoresTipo: multiple choice
Volume total72 mil US$
Volume 24h25 mil US$
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

1.7%6m
None in 2026
None in 2026
-1.0%70%
Anthropic
Anthropic
-2.0%21%
OpenAI
OpenAI
+1.7%6%

+29 mais resultados

64 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade
Volume total78,2 mil US$
Volume 24h436,6 US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

2.5%17d
Anthropic
Anthropic
+0.5%86%
Google
Google
-2.5%9%
Meta
Meta
-0.5%1%

+26 mais resultados

64 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidez
Volume total52,1 mil US$
Volume 24h430,6 US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Best AI at the end of 2026?

Best AI at the end of 2026?

1.1%6m
ChatGPT
ChatGPT
-1.1%15%
Claude
Claude
-0.6%67%
Gemini
Gemini
-3.1%12%

+4 mais resultados

80 • Alta qualidadeSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade
Volume total54,1 mil US$
Volume 24h500,8 US$
KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]

1a
Manifold Markets
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
11.4%
Manifold Markets
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
100%
Manifold Markets
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
45.3%

+148 mais resultados

Previsão da comunidade187 previsoresTipo: multiple choice
Volume total73 mil US$
Volume 24h351,6 US$
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

6m
Google
Google
56%
OpenAI
OpenAI
35%
Meta
Meta
14%

+11 mais resultados

64 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade
Volume total36,5 mil US$
Volume 24h464,9 US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

12.0%6m
Anthropic
Anthropic
-0.1%61%
OpenAI
OpenAI
+0.1%39%
68 • Qualidade médiaSpread moderadoLiquidez médiaAlta ambiguidade
Volume total27,3 mil US$
Volume 24h2,2 mil US$
PolymarketPOLYMARKET