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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. IA
  3. Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

4.0% (24h)IATecnologiaYearly6m
KalshiKalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
xAI
xAI 16%-4.0%
Líder entre 12 opções
Qualidade do mercado

28 / 100

Baixa qualidade
Volume 24h

6,3 €

Liquidez

1 mil €

Baixa liquidez
Compra / Venda

16.0% / 18.0%

Spread

12.5%

Spread amplo
Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 1 minuto

1/01/26, 5:011/01/27, 15:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

xAI16%

PolymarketTambém disponível em Polymarket

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

9.5%6m
Google
Google
+9.5%56%
OpenAI
OpenAI
-0.5%36%
Meta
Meta
14%

+11 mais resultados

80 • Alta qualidadeSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade
Volume total30,2 mil €
Volume 24h512,6 €
PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Regras

If Meta has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If Nvidia has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If xAI has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Mistral has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Deepseek has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Alibaba has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Os dados de comparação são apenas informativos. Preços e liquidez podem variar.

Mercados Relacionados

Manifold Markets

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

5,9 mil €
Google: 14.5%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

1,9 mil €
Sim: 6%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Best AI at the end of 2026?

Best AI at the end of 2026?

441,4 €
Claude: 67%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

69,3 €
Sim: 89.5%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

First year a specific AI model/framework is named as Time's Person of the Year

64,8 €
2025: 0.9%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Ativos nestes tópicos

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Regras

If Meta has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If Nvidia has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If xAI has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Mistral has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Deepseek has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Alibaba has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.