PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
December 31 89%+3.5pt
Qualidade do mercado
55 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
7,3 mil €
Liquidez
7,7 mil €
Liquidez médiaCompra / Venda
54.0% / 60.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Spread amploComentários
0
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 minutos
3/09/26, 00:11 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Manifold MarketsRegras
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume total
- € 241,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 128 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 349,4 mil
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date??
- A Polymarket cota December 31 em 89% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date? é resolvido?
- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date? é liquidado?
- A Polymarket liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).