Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2040?
One-OffScience13aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 29 oct. 2026, 13:06 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 75%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour hier
Obsolète18 mars 26, 23:01 UTC31 déc. 39, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill more than 1% of young men ages 25-35 in any of the following Western countries die during a single calendar year before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
Human brain preservation company Nectome is looking to start accepting patients soon.
- Its founder, Aurelia Song claimed: "I think we will be getting to thousands of preservations per year in a few years"
- (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E9xfgJHvs6M55kABD/less-dead?commentId=HqWWna92bECLJDiCQ)
- "I think Nectome's business case is very strong and that preservation is going to become a new global tradition soon. ... [Within the next decade] I think 0.1% - 1% of people will seriously consider preservation, and Nectome will be very successful."
- (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E9xfgJHvs6M55kABD/less-dead?commentId=qKDXYFwovwmxdr4Kk)
- This market resolves YES iff Nectome preserves over a thousand patients in a single calendar year.