Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2040?
One-OffScience13aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 75%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
18 mars 26, 23:01 UTC31 déc. 39, 23:59 UTC
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Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2030?
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KalshiRègles
Human brain preservation company Nectome is looking to start accepting patients soon.
- Its founder, Aurelia Song claimed: "I think we will be getting to thousands of preservations per year in a few years"
- (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E9xfgJHvs6M55kABD/less-dead?commentId=HqWWna92bECLJDiCQ)
- "I think Nectome's business case is very strong and that preservation is going to become a new global tradition soon. ... [Within the next decade] I think 0.1% - 1% of people will seriously consider preservation, and Nectome will be very successful."
- (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E9xfgJHvs6M55kABD/less-dead?commentId=qKDXYFwovwmxdr4Kk)
- This market resolves YES iff Nectome preserves over a thousand patients in a single calendar year.