Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 57.6%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 54 minutes
En retard6 avr. 26, 18:23 UTC31 déc. 28, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?
Manifold MarketsWill Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill the annual average strength of the AMOC fall below 8 Sverdrups for any calendar year through 2030?
ForecastExUS solar capacity installed in 2026
KalshiWill Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026?
KalshiRègles
This market resolves YES if any solar manufacturer has commercially shipped solar modules containing a perovskite absorber layer totaling 1 GW or more in a single calendar year on or before December 31, 2028.
- YES if: Any company ships >=1,000 MW of commercial perovskite or perovskite-silicon tandem modules (with bankable warranties) in any calendar year 2026, 2027, or 2028 NO if: No manufacturer reaches the 1 GW annual shipment threshold by Dec 31, 2028.
- Research modules, BIPV pilot projects, or indoor PV products without bankable warranties do not count.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- NREL / IEA photovoltaic power systems deployment tracking
- LONGi, Oxford PV, Saule Technologies commercial shipment announcements
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 802,6 k €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume total
- 736,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 585,6 k €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 58% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2028? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Will any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if any solar manufacturer has commercially shipped solar modules containing a perovskite absorber layer totaling 1 GW or more in a single calendar year on or before December 31, 2028.