Will any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2030?
One-OffMatières premières4a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 55.7%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 23 heures
Obsolète6 avr. 26, 18:23 UTC31 déc. 30, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?
Manifold MarketsWill Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2040?
Manifold MarketsTexas gas prices in Oct 2026
KalshiWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
PolymarketRègles
This market resolves YES if any solar manufacturer has commercially shipped solar modules containing a perovskite absorber layer totaling 1 GW or more in a single calendar year on or before December 31, 2030.
- YES if: Any company ships >=1,000 MW commercial perovskite or perovskite-silicon tandem modules (bankable warranties) in any calendar year 2026–2030 NO if: No manufacturer reaches 1 GW annual threshold by Dec 31, 2030.
- Research modules, pilots, or indoor PV without bankable warranties do not count.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- NREL / IEA photovoltaic deployment tracking
- LONGi, Oxford PV commercial shipment announcements