Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.6%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète2 juil. 23, 06:26 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Lake Kivu erupt before 2030?
Manifold MarketsVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030?
Manifold MarketsMount Spurr significant eruption by date?
Manifold MarketsWill a supervolcano erupt before 2050?
KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiRègles
Mount Vesuvius is in an extended period of inactivity, having not erupted since 1944.
- This market resolves YES if, before 01/01/2030, there is an eruption there of 1 or higher on the Volcanic Explosivity Index
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-21.9pt48%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 230,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 77,1 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 109,5 k €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,9 k €
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Mount Vesuvius erupt before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 90% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Mount Vesuvius erupt before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Mount Vesuvius erupt before 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will Mount Vesuvius erupt before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Mount Vesuvius is in an extended period of inactivity, having not erupted since 1944.