Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

0.5 pts (24h)WeatherOne-OffScience8mo

PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Probabilité implicite actuelle

Non 96%+0.0pt

Qualite du marche

70 / 100

Qualité moyenne

Volume 24h

259,3 €

Liquidité

9 k €

Liquidité moyenne

Achat / Vente

4.0% / 4.8%

Spread

0.8 pt

Spread serré

Variation 7j

-0.8 pts

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 22 minutes

29 déc. 25, 23:2531 mars 27, 0:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier

Résultat choisi

Yes4%

Mise (USDT)

Règles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

Tendance du volume

$295

3 juil.25j de données28 juil.

Marchés Associés

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

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Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

7,8 k €

2: 54%

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Number of tornadoes in Jul 2026?

5,9 k €

Above 125: 23%

KALSHI

How many major Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?

228,4 €

Above 7: 34%

KALSHI

Natural Disaster in 2026?

24,8 €

Oui: 21%

POLYMARKET

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

0 €

0: 65%

POLYMARKET

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EthereumETH$1,886.89-3.76%

SolanaSOL$73.37-3.94%

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BNBBNB$566.39-1.45%

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Règles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

0.5 pts (24h)WeatherOne-OffScience8mo

PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Probabilité implicite actuelle

Non 96%+0.0pt

Qualite du marche

70 / 100

Qualité moyenne

Volume 24h

259,3 €

Liquidité

9 k €

Liquidité moyenne

Achat / Vente

4.0% / 4.8%

Spread

0.8 pt

Spread serré

Variation 7j

-0.8 pts

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 22 minutes

29 déc. 25, 23:2531 mars 27, 0:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier

Résultat choisi

Yes4%

Mise (USDT)

Règles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

Tendance du volume

$295

3 juil.25j de données28 juil.

Marchés Associés

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

10,9 k €

Oui: 4%

KALSHI

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

7,8 k €

2: 54%

POLYMARKET

Number of tornadoes in Jul 2026?

5,9 k €

Above 125: 23%

KALSHI

How many major Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?

228,4 €

Above 7: 34%

KALSHI

Natural Disaster in 2026?

24,8 €

Oui: 21%

POLYMARKET

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

0 €

0: 65%

POLYMARKET

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$63,511.59-2.86%

EthereumETH$1,886.89-3.76%

SolanaSOL$73.37-3.94%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0701-3.70%

XRPXRP$1.06-4.44%

BNBBNB$566.39-1.45%

Actualités Associées

NVIDIA Ising Calibration 1.5 Pushes Quantum Computing ForwardBlockchain.News

Crypto is the canary in the coal mine for the quantum computing threat, experts sayCoindesk

Galaxy Digital opens $5M fund for Bitcoin quantum security researchCrypto News

Claude's Fable 5 just solved an 87-year-old math problem, and it matters for bitcoinCoindesk

Google DeepMind, Isomorphic Labs Unveil AI-Powered Bioresilience PlanBlockchain.News

NVIDIA BioNeMo Toolkit Accelerates AI-Driven Drug DiscoveryBlockchain.News

Règles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.