Probabilité implicite actuelle
Non 94%
Non 94%Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
5,1 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
6.0% / 6.7%
Écart
0.7 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
10
Variation 7j
-0.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
29 déc. 25, 23:25 UTC1 avr. 27, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Polymarket
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Ordre minimum (parts):
- 5
- Pas de cotation:
- 0,1 points de pourcentage
- Frais:
- Oui
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Major volcano eruption in 2026?
KalshiVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
PolymarketEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
PolymarketHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
PolymarketWill any Manifold user be killed in a volcanic eruption before 2050?
Manifold MarketsMount Spurr significant eruption by date?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
- Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
- If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
- Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.