How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

0.1% (24h)One-OffScience9mo

PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de frais

Probabilité implicite actuelle

0 70%+4.0%

En tête parmi 6 options

Qualite du marche

44 / 100

Faible qualité

Volume 24h

1,8 €

Liquidité

11,5 k €

Liquidité moyenne

Achat / Vente

0.5% / 1.6%

Spread

220.0%

Spread large

Variation 7j

+0.2%

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 2 minutes

2 janv. 26, 18:5631 mars 27, 0:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

070%

Mise (USDT)

Règles

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.

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Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

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Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

3,4 k €

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Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

3,3 k €

Oui: 20.8%

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Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

1,1 k €

Before 2027: 14%

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Highest monthly CO2 level at Mauna Loa in first half of 2026

848,9 €

432 or less: 0.4%

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Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

296,9 €

Oui: 80%

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EthereumETH$1,650.38+1.55%

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Règles

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

0.1% (24h)One-OffScience9mo

PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de frais

Probabilité implicite actuelle

0 70%+4.0%

En tête parmi 6 options

Qualite du marche

44 / 100

Faible qualité

Volume 24h

1,8 €

Liquidité

11,5 k €

Liquidité moyenne

Achat / Vente

0.5% / 1.6%

Spread

220.0%

Spread large

Variation 7j

+0.2%

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 2 minutes

2 janv. 26, 18:5631 mars 27, 0:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

070%

Mise (USDT)

Règles

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.

Marchés Associés

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

1,2 M €

December 31: 11%

POLYMARKET

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

3,4 k €

2: 63%

POLYMARKET

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

3,3 k €

Oui: 20.8%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

1,1 k €

Before 2027: 14%

KALSHI

Highest monthly CO2 level at Mauna Loa in first half of 2026

848,9 €

432 or less: 0.4%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

296,9 €

Oui: 80%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$62,655.03+2.33%

EthereumETH$1,650.38+1.55%

SolanaSOL$65.14+1.56%

DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.70%

XRPXRP$1.12+0.21%

BNBBNB$595.20+1.63%

Actualités Associées

Anthropic’s Claude Tackles Chemistry with NMR Structure AnalysisBlockchain.News

Quantus’ Q-Day Brings Together Leading Cryptographers, Blockchain Builders, Investors, and Researchers to Prepare for the Post-Quantum FutureBlockchain Reporter

Règles

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.