Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 61.5%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète11 nov. 23, 21:54 UTC2 janv. 00, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This market will resolve yes if a volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_explosivity_index) of 2 or greater is directly triggered by human activities by Jan. 1, 2100.
- Both accidental and purposeful activities that directly cause an eruption will count.
- Some examples of direct triggers could include drilling or a human-caused explosion.
- Indirect mechanisms, such as climate change increasing the chances of eruption (e.g., https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article/46/1/47/521232/Climatic-control-on-Icelandic-volcanic-activity), do not count.
- I will use a consensus of reputable sources (USGS, peer-reviewed journals) to determine the VEI of an eruption and whether it was directly caused by human activity.
