Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

One-OffScience Weather6mo

PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de frais

Probabilité implicite actuelle

Oui 8%

Qualite du marche

24 / 100

Faible qualité

Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidité

75,8 €

Faible liquidité

Achat / Vente

5.0% / 10.0%

Spread

100.0%

Spread large

Variation 7j

+0.5%

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes

21 avr. 26, 19:4131 déc. 26, 0:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

Yes8%

Mise (USDT)

Règles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred.
If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.

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Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

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Highest monthly CO2 level at Mauna Loa in first half of 2026

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432 or less: 0.4%

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Natural Disaster in 2026?

37,4 €

Oui: 25%

POLYMARKET

When will El Niño conditions be declared present?

1,2 €

Before Jul 1, 2026: 70%

KALSHI

How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?

0,3 €

At least 440: 89%

KALSHI

Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

0,1 €

Oui: 77%

KALSHI

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Règles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred.
If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.

Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

One-OffScience Weather6mo

PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de frais

Probabilité implicite actuelle

Oui 8%

Qualite du marche

24 / 100

Faible qualité

Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidité

75,8 €

Faible liquidité

Achat / Vente

5.0% / 10.0%

Spread

100.0%

Spread large

Variation 7j

+0.5%

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes

21 avr. 26, 19:4131 déc. 26, 0:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

Yes8%

Mise (USDT)

Règles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred.
If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.

Marchés Associés

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

3,7 k €

2: 63%

POLYMARKET

Highest monthly CO2 level at Mauna Loa in first half of 2026

849 €

432 or less: 0.4%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Natural Disaster in 2026?

37,4 €

Oui: 25%

POLYMARKET

When will El Niño conditions be declared present?

1,2 €

Before Jul 1, 2026: 70%

KALSHI

How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?

0,3 €

At least 440: 89%

KALSHI

Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

0,1 €

Oui: 77%

KALSHI

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$62,697.80+1.63%

EthereumETH$1,653.23+0.81%

SolanaSOL$64.96+0.69%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0848+0.65%

XRPXRP$1.11-0.28%

BNBBNB$597.52+1.49%

Actualités Associées

Anthropic’s Claude Tackles Chemistry with NMR Structure AnalysisBlockchain.News

Quantus’ Q-Day Brings Together Leading Cryptographers, Blockchain Builders, Investors, and Researchers to Prepare for the Post-Quantum FutureBlockchain Reporter

Règles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred.
If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.