Probabilité implicite actuelle
Non 95%
Qualité du marché
41 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
412,5 €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
1.2% / 8.0%
Écart
6.8 pt
Spread largeCommentaires
4
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
21 avr. 26, 19:35 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
PolymarketEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Mount Vesuvius erupt before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030?
Manifold MarketsMajor volcano eruption in 2026?
KalshiRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
- This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred.
- If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
- If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 95% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.