Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 85%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète16 oct. 23, 02:31 UTC2 janv. 31, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWill some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves YES for generally the same criteria as https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-vesuvius-challenge-recover
- HOWEVER, the test is not for "at least one known lost work" but rather "at least 85% of one 1000-word-or-more passage".
- This should diverge from @LarsDoucet 's market and result in YES when his would NO in at least the following conditions:
- The challenge recovers everything, but the original work stored in the Vesuvius library was already universally incomplete (e.g., if it turns out scribes as of 79 AD already had lost access to part of a work)
- The challenge recovers everything, but the original work stored in the Vesuvius library was locally incomplete (e.g., a particular chapter scroll of a larger work had been by bad luck been borrowed that day by a scribe for copying, and that scribe took the scroll with him when evacuating, and it was lost to history)
- The challenge doesn't recover everything -- we just have less luck recovering consistent long blocks of text, versus fragmentary passages, than Lars hopes.
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211 k €
- Volume 24h
- 110,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 85% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2031.
- Comment Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES for generally the same criteria as https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-vesuvius-challenge-recover