Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
After 2028 94.1%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète20 mars 25, 05:16 UTC31 janv. 29, 21:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Mount Vesuvius erupt before 2030?
Manifold MarketsMajor volcano eruption in 2026?
KalshiMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
PolymarketVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
PolymarketEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves according to https://www.usgs.gov/programs/VHP/volcano-updates
- Mount Spurr is an active stratovolcano located in the Aleutian Range of Alaska, about 80 miles (130 km) west of Anchorage.
- Its most recent significant eruptions occurred in 1953 and a series of three eruptions in 1992 (June 27, August 18, and September).
- The 1992 eruptions affected Anchorage with ashfall, particularly the August 18 event.
- Scientists at the Alaska Volcano Observatory have recently noted increased activity at Mount Spurr, suggesting a potential eruption in the coming weeks or months.
- The volcano is monitored closely due to its proximity to Anchorage, Alaska's largest city.
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-21.9pt48%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 230,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 77,1 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 109,5 k €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,9 k €
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Mount Spurr significant eruption by date? ?
- Manifold Markets cote After 2028 à 94% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Mount Spurr significant eruption by date? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Mount Spurr significant eruption by date? doit être résolu le 31 janvier 2029.
- Comment Mount Spurr significant eruption by date? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves according to https://www.usgs.gov/programs/VHP/volcano-updates