Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleEnd of 2026 10%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète15 sept. 26, 04:23 UTC31 janv. 27, 04:21 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Hezbollah disarm by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketWill Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve identically to this one, on Polymarket: Will Hamas agree to disarm by November 30?
- Polymarket rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
- For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
- Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur Futuur — Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? · December 31 22%
- Également disponible sur Polymarket — Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? · December 31, 9%