Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
PolitiqueOne-OffMoyen-OrientGéopolitique2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 59%
Prévisionnistes
287
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 57 minutes
En retard4 nov. 23, 09:58 UTC7 janv. 27, 12:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the end of 2026?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES when Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be the Prime Minister of Israel or NO when the Israel–Hamas war ends, whichever happens first.
- The war "ending" is defined, for the purposes of this market, as the Wikipedia page on the 2023 Israel–Hamas war no longer saying "status: ongoing" in the infobox.
- This includes the status being changed to indicate the war transitioning into a frozen conflict, which Wikipedia tends to do when conflicts are no longer active but never officially ended: the war will be considered "over" for the purposes of this question if that happens.
- In the case of Wikipedia listing the war as no longer "ongoing", I'll wait some time to ensure the change is not reverted, and for any edit war to conclude.
- Then I'll resolve the market based on whether Netanyahu was Prime Minister at the time the change appeared to become final.
- I reserve the right to use a more sensible definition if this turns out to be a bad one, but the spirit is to include both official and de facto ends to the war, whilst deferring to a fairly reliable third-party information aggregator like Wikipedia.
