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Données au 27 oct. 2026, 12:58 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Probabilité implicite actuelle
December 31 21%
December 31 21%Qualité du marché
27 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
1,6 k €
Faible liquiditéTraders
5
Commentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
Tendances
Règles
This set of markets predicts whether Israel and Hamas will reach an official agreement on the second phase of their ceasefire.
- On October 8, 2025, an initial ceasefire agreement ("Phase 1") was announced, comprising a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a "yellow line", prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages.
- Each market below covers one possible deadline; any number of these markets may resolve "Yes" (an agreement reached before an earlier deadline also counts toward all later deadlines).
- A market resolves "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire — a publicly announced mutual agreement — is reached between Israel and Hamas on or before the market's deadline.
- A "second phase" ceasefire agreement is a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments toward a comprehensive or "full" ceasefire.
- Any agreement publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of "Phase 2" of the ceasefire qualifies, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the "yellow line" or commitments by Hamas to disarm.
