Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
0.5 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffGéopolitiqueMiddle East3mois
PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
December 31 23%+0.5ptEn tête parmi 8 options
Qualité du marché
57 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
9,3 €
Liquidité
11 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
1.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
357
Variation 7j
+3.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
9 oct. 25, 19:17 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
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PolymarketRègles
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages.
- A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by the named outcome, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.
