Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
1.5% (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffGéopolitiqueMiddle EastDivertissementMusic5mo
PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelleDecember 31 13%+1.5%En tête parmi 9 options
Qualite du marche
44 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
95,3 €
Liquidité
14,1 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
11.0% / 14.0%
Spread
27.3%
Spread largeVariation 7j
-15.0%
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 minutes
9 oct. 25, 19:1731 déc. 26, 0:00
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
0%
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
December 3113%
Comparer les plateformes· December 31
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketCette pageMeilleur global | Faible | 13% | — | 95,3 € | 14,1 k € | il y a 20 minutes | |
 Futuur93% de correspondance · auto | Faible | 81% | — | 0 € | 1,1 k € | il y a 20 minutes | Ouvrir → |
Également disponible sur Futuur
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
5mo
81%
19%
28 • Faible qualitéSpread inconnuFaible liquiditéMarché peu profond
Volume total0 €
Volume 24h0 €
FUTUURRègles
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages.
- A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Tendance du volume
$1082 juil.25j de données26 juil.
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On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages.
- A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.