FutuurVérifier la disponibilitéDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAlerte qualité des donnéesAucune cotation en direct
Données au 24 oct. 2026, 21:20 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Probabilité implicite actuelle
December 31 15%
December 31 15%Qualité du marché
27 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
1,8 k €
Faible liquiditéTraders
4
Commentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
FutuurWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Manifold MarketsWill Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?
Manifold MarketsWill the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war
Manifold MarketsRègles
This set of markets predicts whether the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, in effect since October 2025, will be cancelled.
- Each of the markets below covers one possible deadline; any number of these markets may resolve to "Yes".
- A market resolves to "Yes" if either Israel or Hamas announces the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a wide consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, on or before the market's deadline.
- Announcements or reports that one side violated the ceasefire are not sufficient on their own; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or a wide consensus of credible reporting that the ceasefire has ended, qualifies.
- Once the condition is first met, the resolution is final and irrevocable, even if a ceasefire is subsequently restored.
- The Primary Designated Sources are official information from the Government of Israel and from Hamas.