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Données au 27 oct. 2026, 15:15 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Probabilité implicite actuelle
December 31 15%
December 31 15%Qualité du marché
27 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
1,8 k €
Faible liquiditéTraders
4
Commentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 minutes
Tendances
Règles
This set of markets predicts whether the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, in effect since October 2025, will be cancelled.
- Each of the markets below covers one possible deadline; any number of these markets may resolve to "Yes".
- A market resolves to "Yes" if either Israel or Hamas announces the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a wide consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, on or before the market's deadline.
- Announcements or reports that one side violated the ceasefire are not sufficient on their own; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or a wide consensus of credible reporting that the ceasefire has ended, qualifies.
- Once the condition is first met, the resolution is final and irrevocable, even if a ceasefire is subsequently restored.
- The Primary Designated Sources are official information from the Government of Israel and from Hamas.
