Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?
Politique américaineOne-OffMoyen-OrientGéopolitiquePolitique2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 14:18 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 94.9%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard3 janv. 26, 03:11 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Resolution Criteria
- The Trump peace plan calls for Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups to surrender their weapons to an international peacekeeping force, with the second phase explicitly stipulating that Hamas and other armed terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip will be required to disarm and the Strip will become a demilitarized zone.
- This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, credible reporting confirms that Hamas has verifiably surrendered a substantial majority of its weapons arsenal (including heavy weapons, rockets, and small arms) to an international force or third party, with independent verification of the disarmament.
- This includes destruction of weapons caches and tunnel infrastructure used for weapons storage or manufacturing.
- This market resolves NO if Hamas retains operational control of significant weapons stockpiles, continues active weapons manufacturing, or refuses to participate in verified disarmament by year-end 2026.
- A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas went into effect on October 10, 2025.
