Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 93.6%
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète3 janv. 26, 03:11 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
PolymarketWill Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
FutuurWill Hezbollah disarm by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
FutuurRègles
Resolution Criteria
- The Trump peace plan calls for Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups to surrender their weapons to an international peacekeeping force, with the second phase explicitly stipulating that Hamas and other armed terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip will be required to disarm and the Strip will become a demilitarized zone.
- This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, credible reporting confirms that Hamas has verifiably surrendered a substantial majority of its weapons arsenal (including heavy weapons, rockets, and small arms) to an international force or third party, with independent verification of the disarmament.
- This includes destruction of weapons caches and tunnel infrastructure used for weapons storage or manufacturing.
- This market resolves NO if Hamas retains operational control of significant weapons stockpiles, continues active weapons manufacturing, or refuses to participate in verified disarmament by year-end 2026.
- A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas went into effect on October 10, 2025.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 94% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution Criteria