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Données au 27 oct. 2026, 03:16 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Probabilité implicite actuelle
December 31 22%
December 31 22%Qualité du marché
26 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
1,6 k €
Faible liquiditéTraders
3
Commentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 minutes
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Hezbollah disarm by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketWill Bibi Netanyahu lose power during or in the aftermath after the 2023 Hamas-Israel War
Manifold MarketsWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This set of markets predicts whether Hamas will officially announce that it will disarm in the Gaza Strip.
- Each market below covers one possible deadline; any number of these markets may resolve "Yes" (an announcement made before an earlier deadline also counts toward all later deadlines).
- A market resolves "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip on or before the market's deadline.
- For the purposes of this event, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
- Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons, or agreeing to disarm in stages or in a certain region) qualify as long as they are part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
- Only official announcements qualify — for example, by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas.