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Données au 24 oct. 2026, 23:09 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Probabilité implicite actuelle
December 31 22%
December 31 22%Qualité du marché
26 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
1,6 k €
Faible liquiditéTraders
3
Commentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Hezbollah disarm by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketWill Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This set of markets predicts whether Hamas will officially announce that it will disarm in the Gaza Strip.
- Each market below covers one possible deadline; any number of these markets may resolve "Yes" (an announcement made before an earlier deadline also counts toward all later deadlines).
- A market resolves "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip on or before the market's deadline.
- For the purposes of this event, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
- Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons, or agreeing to disarm in stages or in a certain region) qualify as long as they are part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
- Only official announcements qualify — for example, by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas.