Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 88.5%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète14 mars 26, 03:50 UTC2 janv. 00, 03:48 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Biden still be president at the end of 2022? [Resolves to superintelligence]
Manifold MarketsWill artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
Manifold MarketsIs 1,000 atoms ever sufficient for the experience of suffering, under any design or any circumstance? (Upgradable KBC, resolves in 2025)
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiRègles
Once a superintelligence exists, I will ask it this question and resolve to its answer.
- (I will ask it to answer based on the most sensible definition of the word as used by humans in 2026.
- And I will exclude answers that seem to be jokes.)
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211 k €
- Volume 24h
- 110,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Are pigs sentient? [Resolves to superintelligence] ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 89% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Are pigs sentient? [Resolves to superintelligence] sera-t-il résolu ?
- Are pigs sentient? [Resolves to superintelligence] doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2100.
- Comment Are pigs sentient? [Resolves to superintelligence] est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Once a superintelligence exists, I will ask it this question and resolve to its answer.