Is 1,000 atoms ever sufficient for the experience of suffering, under any design or any circumstance? (Upgradable KBC, resolves in 2025)
One-OffScience
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 86.4%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète6 févr. 23, 15:45 UTC31 déc. 99, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Are pigs sentient? [Resolves to superintelligence]
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KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
If we cannot find an unambiguous and relevant criteria by 2025, then the question will fallback to being a Keynesian Beauty Contest (KBC).
- Starting the count on 2025-Jan-01, whichever of the below happens first:
- If the market spends 1 calendar month >=80%, then this market would resolve as “YES” representing “1,000 atoms can be sufficient for the experience of suffering, under some design or some circumstance”.
- If the market spends 1 calendar month <=20%, then this market would resolve as “NO” representing “1,000 atoms are never sufficient for the experience of suffering, under any design nor any circumstance.”
- But if a less ambiguous and more relevant criterion is found, then this market will “upgrade” to that.
- Any proposed upgrade will be discussed openly, and can be traded.