![Will Biden still be president at the end of 2022? [Resolves to superintelligence]](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fdream%252Fmf2y9u5QBt.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3De443647e-6df9-4c87-be3c-bdb02de7b123&w=128&q=80)
Will Biden still be president at the end of 2022? [Resolves to superintelligence]
PolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlection
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 95%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète27 nov. 22, 23:31 UTC1 janv. 00, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Are pigs sentient? [Resolves to superintelligence]
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden still be alive at the beginning of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Lukashenko still be the President of Belarus by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsDíaz-Canel still President of Cuba through the end of 2026?
FutuurSisi still President of Egypt through the end of 2029?
FutuurMahmoud Abbas still President of the Palestinian Authority through the end of 2026?
FutuurRègles
Several people on Manifold have been trying to figure out how make markets like these resolve without having to do it themselves.
- Yet they continue to fail.
- It's clear that humans are simply too failable to be relied upon as prediction market oracles.
- This market resolves once a superintelligence resolves it.
- I trust the superintelligence will resolve it correctly.
