Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 96.8%
Pronosticadores
37
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado21 mar 26, 8:37 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
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PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China conducts a military invasion of Taiwan before January 1, 2027.
- An invasion is defined as a large-scale, sustained military operation involving amphibious assault, airborne operations, or direct military occupation of Taiwan's territory.
- The resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Bloomberg, etc.) and official statements from Taiwan's government or the U.S. State Department.
- Isolated military incidents, exercises, blockades, or cyber operations do not constitute an invasion.
- Xi Jinping has directed the PLA to accelerate its timeline for developing invasion capabilities from 2035 to 2027.