PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 90%-0.5pt
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$8.8K
Liquidity
$89K
High liquidityBid / Ask
79.0% / 81.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
+38.5 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Aug 6, 26, 12:09 AMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.854785° N, 37.770676° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.