PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probability
December 31 35%-1.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$13.4K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
3.2% / 4.9%
Spread
53.1%
Wide spread7d Change
+1.0%
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Feb 6, 26, 12:25 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3135%
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Drobysheve, Donetsk Oblast, (49°02'31.4"N 37°43'54.7"E) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Drobysheve will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.