PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 5%Leader of 7 outcomes
December 31 5%Market quality
38 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$10.4K
Liquidity
$1.6K
Low liquidityComments
0
7d Change
-1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jan 29, 26, 3:43 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
May 31Lost
June 30Lost
September 30Lost
Before close: 0% ·
February 28Lost
March 31Lost
April 30Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill Russia capture Lyman in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.072806° N, 36.523854° E in Havrylivka between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances