Will inflation be 0.2% or more from March to April?
Inflation
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Current implied probability
Yes 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 123 days ago
StaleApr 20, 21, 12:00 AMMay 12, 21, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This is a market on whether month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U) will be 0.2% or more from March to April, when the BLS releases month-to-month inflation information for the preceding month of April on May 12, 2021, 8:30 AM ET.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by exactly 0.2 percent (i.e. twenty hundredths of 1%) or more from March 2021 to April 2021.
- This market will resolve to “No” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by less than 0.2 percent (i.e. twenty hundredths of 1%) from March 2021 to April 2021.
- The resolution source for this market will be the BLS April 2021 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on May 12, 2021, 8:30 AM ET.
- Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
- Note that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%, 0.1%, etc).
Open markets
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- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $52.3M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8M
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+2.0pt43%
- September Meeting34%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
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KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.3%99%
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+12 more outcomes
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- $136.5K
- 24h Vol
- $13.2K
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- Yes56%
- No44%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $12.6K
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- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $140.6K
- 24h Vol
- $7.9K
KALSHIHow much will core PCE increase in Jul 2026?
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+6.0pt93%
- Above 0.2%-1.0pt29%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $48.8K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will inflation be 0.2% or more from March to April??
- Polymarket prices Yes at 100% as of April 25, 2026.
- When does Will inflation be 0.2% or more from March to April? resolve?
- Will inflation be 0.2% or more from March to April? is scheduled to resolve on May 12, 2021.
- How is Will inflation be 0.2% or more from March to April? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This is a market on whether month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U) will be 0.2% or more from March to April, when the BLS releases month-to-month inflation information for the preceding month of April on May 12, 2021, 8:30 AM ET.