Current implied probability
No 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 123 days ago
StaleDec 6, 23, 11:16 PMDec 31, 23, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
100%
0%
Rules
If Google deploys an LLM that reaches the top of the Elo leaderboard on https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Only models accessible to the public (e.g. developers or public sign-ups) will count for this market.
- If Google deploys a new model in 2023 that could reach the top of the leaderboard but is not yet ranked at year's end due to time required for evaluation, this market's resolution may be delayed until February 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.
- If at this point the resolution source still does not list the new model's ELO, the underlying script(s) will be used to determine whether google's model tops the leaderboard.
- Note that the model must be released by the resolution date to be considered (if they release a new version of the model after the resolution date, it will not be considered for this market).
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T+0.3pt98%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.2M
- 24h Vol
- $123.5K
POLYMARKETWhich company does Ox Alpha belong to?
- Z.ai+12.2pt95%
- Google-2.1pt4%
- Nvidia+0.3pt1%
+20 more outcomes
KALSHIWhat will Zoom say during their next earnings call?
- Enterprise+3.0pt99%
- Agentic+16.0pt99%
- Contact Center+6.0pt99%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt65.7%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt11.8%
- Grok+0.4pt10.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.3M
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- SpaceX-7.5pt58.2%
- Anthropic+4.5pt40.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt1%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba+0.7pt95%
- Z.ai+0.3pt4%
- Moonshot-0.6pt1%
+8 more outcomes
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- XRP price on August 31
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- GPT-6 released by which date?
- Highest temperature in Miami on August 25, 2026?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- TOUR Championship Winner
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Google have the best LLM before 2024??
- Polymarket prices No at 100% as of April 24, 2026.
- When does Will Google have the best LLM before 2024? resolve?
- Will Google have the best LLM before 2024? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2023.
- How is Will Google have the best LLM before 2024? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: If Google deploys an LLM that reaches the top of the Elo leaderboard on https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".