Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
NoWon
YesLost
Rules
If Google deploys an LLM that reaches the top of the Elo leaderboard on https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Only models accessible to the public (e.g. developers or public sign-ups) will count for this market.
- If Google deploys a new model in 2023 that could reach the top of the leaderboard but is not yet ranked at year's end due to time required for evaluation, this market's resolution may be delayed until February 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.
- If at this point the resolution source still does not list the new model's ELO, the underlying script(s) will be used to determine whether google's model tops the leaderboard.
- Note that the model must be released by the resolution date to be considered (if they release a new version of the model after the resolution date, it will not be considered for this market).
