US inflation >0.2% from Nov to Dec 2023?
Inflation
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes
Resolved: Jan 11, 2024, 3:45 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
Yes 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 147 days ago
StaleDec 12, 23, 7:13 PMJan 11, 24, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This is a market on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from November to December 2023. Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than 0.2 percent (on a seasonally adjusted basis) from November to December 2023 and “No“ otherwise.
- The resolution source for this market will be the BLS November 2023 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on January 11, 2024, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.
- Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.3%, the market will resolve to “Yes”, if it is 0.2%, this market will resolve to “No”).
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase-1.0pt33%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $52.3M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8M
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+2.0pt43%
- September Meeting34%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $136.5K
- 24h Vol
- $13.2K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes56%
- No44%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $12.6K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $140.6K
- 24h Vol
- $7.9K
KALSHIHow much will core PCE increase in Jul 2026?
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+6.0pt93%
- Above 0.2%-1.0pt29%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $48.8K
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- How high will inflation get this year?
- Core PCE MoM - July 2026
- Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
- US headline CPI inflation in December 2027
- CPI-U index in August
- US gasoline CPI for August
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Annual
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US inflation >0.2% from Nov to Dec 2023??
- Polymarket prices Yes at 100% as of March 31, 2026.
- When does US inflation >0.2% from Nov to Dec 2023? resolve?
- US inflation >0.2% from Nov to Dec 2023? is scheduled to resolve on January 11, 2024.
- How is US inflation >0.2% from Nov to Dec 2023? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This is a market on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from November to December 2023. Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.