PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Colorado 99%+36.8ptLeader of 40 outcomes
Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$96.7
Liquidity
$2.4K
Low liquiditySpread
3.9 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 3, 26, 1:00 PM UTCSep 10, 26, 1:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?
PolymarketNew York J: To Break Playoff Drought
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Manifold MarketsWill the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceed 10% on August 17, 2027?
ForecastExWill the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceed 15% on August 17, 2027?
ForecastExWill the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceed 20% on August 17, 2027?
ForecastExRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
- States appear only during the months in which they plausibly reach D4, so this event's roster changes through the year. 40 of the 48 coterminous states are in season for September: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, the named outcome, the named outcome, the named outcome, the named outcome, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, the named outcome, the named outcome, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, the named outcome, Wisconsin, Wyoming.
- A state absent from this event is not making any claim about that state's drought — it simply has no market this week.
- Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of September 8, 2026?
- Polymarket prices Colorado at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of September 8, 2026 resolve?
- Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of September 8, 2026 is scheduled to resolve on September 10, 2026.
- How is Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of September 8, 2026 settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.