Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 65.5%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleSep 1, 26, 4:43 AM UTCAug 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
New York J: To Break Playoff Drought
KalshiExceptional drought (D4) by state — week of September 8, 2026
PolymarketHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?
PolymarketWill the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceed 10% on August 17, 2027?
ForecastExWill the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceed 15% on August 17, 2027?
ForecastExWill the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceed 20% on August 17, 2027?
ForecastExRules
At the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought?
- Yes: As reported by the US Drought Monitor, large parts of California are in at least a moderate drought as per the U.S. Drought Monitor at UNL.
- No: Most of California is either not in a drought, or at most "abnormally dry".
- The measure is if there's a drought in August, so this won't close early if there's a widespread drought sooner.
- https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?West
- Resolution criteria
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $274.9K
- 24h Vol
- $267.9K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+43.0pt89.3%
- 94° or above+2.0pt6.8%
- 90° to 91°-36.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt70.9%
- 82° to 83°-15.0pt22.3%
- 79° or below-4.0pt3.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes-7.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $77.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.2K
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
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- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for At the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 66% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does At the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought? resolve?
- At the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought? is scheduled to resolve on August 31, 2028.
- How is At the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: At the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought?