How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?
36.9 pts (24h)WeatherOne-Off1d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
10 or more states 60%-3.0ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$51.3
Liquidity
$237.4
Low liquiditySpread
0.8 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Sep 3, 26, 1:01 PM UTCSep 10, 26, 1:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of September 8, 2026
PolymarketNew York J: To Break Playoff Drought
KalshiAt the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought?
Manifold MarketsWill the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceed 10% on August 17, 2027?
ForecastExWill the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceed 15% on August 17, 2027?
ForecastExWill the percentage of the US experiencing drought conditions exceed 20% on August 17, 2027?
ForecastExRules
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
- Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+.
- Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
- The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii.
- The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
- Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $274.9K
- 24h Vol
- $267.9K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+43.0pt89.3%
- 94° or above+2.0pt6.8%
- 90° to 91°-36.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt70.9%
- 82° to 83°-15.0pt22.3%
- 79° or below-4.0pt3.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes-7.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $77.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.2K
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
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- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 8, 2026?
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- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026??
- Polymarket prices 10 or more states at 60% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026? resolve?
- How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 10, 2026.
- How is How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.