PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
4 29.5%+1.5ptLeader of 6 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
55 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2
Liquidity
$6K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
+12.5 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Aug 26, 26, 10:12 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
ChatGPT Outage by which date?
PolymarketWill this question get 100 traders in 515 days? (September 12, 2026) UTC
Manifold MarketsWill Claude go down on __ days in September?
PolymarketWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.
- ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized.
- (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
- Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered.
- Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
- A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for # of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026??
- Polymarket prices 4 at 29% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does # of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026? resolve?
- # of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is # of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.