PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
1430+ 63%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$9.1K
Liquidity
$7.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Sep 21, 26, 9:20 PM UTCJun 30, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT Luna model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Luna" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Luna would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Luna or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Luna" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Luna, GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-6 Astra (released September 4, 2026), will not qualify.
- Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.
- Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+56.5pt74.1%
- September 23+6.8pt10.2%
- September 24+0.9pt5.6%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $311.3K
- 24h Vol
- $224.5K
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-3.0pt28%
- Mark Carney20%
- Donald Trump-1.0pt10%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.1M
- 24h Vol
- $120.4K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt69.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.7%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.8M
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.3pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $97.5K
- 24h Vol
- $74.8K
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- Anthropic market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut??
- Polymarket prices 1430+ at 63% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut? resolve?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut? is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2027.
- How is Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT Luna model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.