PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 82%+0.2pt
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$95.6
Low liquidityBid / Ask
3.2% / 32.8%
Spread
29.6 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
+0.6 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Nov 26, 25, 12:36 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024.
- You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
- This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge.
Open markets
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- No+17.0pt65%
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- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 20265%
- Total Vol
- $578.5K
- 24h Vol
- $6.6K
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- December 31-6.0pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
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- No prison time+0.5pt42.2%
- 60++1.5pt38.2%
- 20–40-0.9pt8.8%
+2 more outcomes
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- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027? resolve?
- Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024.