PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
53.0 to 53.9 25%-1.5ptLeader of 10 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$71
Liquidity
$10.6K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Sep 1, 26, 10:22 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 6:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
ISM Services PMI - September 2026
PolymarketUS ISM Services PMI for September
KalshiWill Ohio manufacturing employment rise YoY?
KalshiWill New Jersey pharmaceutical manufacturing jobs rise YoY?
KalshiWhat will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on September 30?
PolymarketWhat will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30?
PolymarketRules
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
- A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
- This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
- The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET.
- Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
- Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — ISM Manufacturing PMI in September · At least 51 97%
Open markets
Macro & EconomyKALSHIConnecticut multifamily housing permits in 2026
- Above 3,500 units-1.0pt88%
- Above 4,000 units-4.0pt66%
- Above 4,500 units-29.0pt19%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $53.3K
- 24h Vol
- $24.4K
KALSHIPennsylvania gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.260099%
- Above 4.265099%
- Above 4.270098%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.3K
- 24h Vol
- $11.6K
KALSHIHousing units authorized in Vermont in 2026
- Above 1,700 units-4.0pt82%
- Above 1,600 units-11.0pt80%
- Above 1,800 units-5.0pt68%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhat will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on September 30?
- $518K - $524K+1.8pt31.5%
- $524K - $530K+13.8pt25%
- $530K - $536K-21.3pt15.7%
POLYMARKETWhat will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30?
- $1.153M - $1.169M+14.6pt37%
- $1.137M - $1.153M-6.0pt31%
- <$1.137M-25.6pt14%
KALSHICzech National Bank rate decision in September
- Maintain current rate-3.0pt86.8%
- Hike 25bps+4.0pt7.5%
- Cut 50bps1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.5K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026?
- Polymarket prices 53.0 to 53.9 at 25% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026 resolve?
- ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026 is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026 settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
- Where else is ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026 listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.