Current implied probability
<12 80.8%+10.5ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
54 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$102.5
Liquidity
$4K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.9 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-16.4 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 26, 26, 9:57 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
PolymarketHow many successful SpaceX launches in September 2026 UTC
Manifold MarketsTotal space launches in September
KalshiHow many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
KalshiHow many Starship launches will occur in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many SpaceX launches in September 2026??
- Polymarket prices <12 at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How many SpaceX launches in September 2026? resolve?
- How many SpaceX launches in September 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is How many SpaceX launches in September 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is How many SpaceX launches in September 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.