Current community forecast
8 or fewer 44%+8.9ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+29.8 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Aug 14, 26, 8:31 AMSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Rules
Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page. https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=&f=agency_1&tab=
- for September 2026, UTC time.
- If that page is demonstrably wrong or out of date, then I will either wait for update or a correct source will be decided upon and used as a replacement.
- A launch is considered successful if it is outlined in green on the linked manifest page.
- Launches outlined with red (failure) or orange (partial failure) will not count as successful.
- (Starship is considered an orbital launch vehicle, regardless of true orbit not being demonstrated.
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 3, 2026 at 7pm EDT?
- $80,800 or above99%
- $80,700 or above99%
- $80,600 or above99%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.8M
- 24h Vol
- $1.6M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 4, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $75,000 or above+11.0pt99%
- $75,500 or above+16.0pt99%
- $73,500 or above+4.0pt99%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets August 28 - September 4, 2026?
- 220-239+51.0pt57.8%
- 200-219+1.0pt29.4%
- 240-259+8.2pt10.8%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 3, 2026?
- 78° to 79°+74.0pt95.2%
- 76° to 77°-57.0pt1%
- 80° or above-3.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-11.0pt80.8%
- OpenAI+9.9pt17.2%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 3, 2026?
- Minneapolis+35.0pt99%
- Philadelphia+19.0pt99%
- New York City+4.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 3, 2026?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 3, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 3, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 3, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 3, 2026?
- Lowest temperature in Denver on Sep 3, 2026?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 4, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many successful SpaceX launches in September 2026 UTC?
- Manifold Markets prices 8 or fewer at 44% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does How many successful SpaceX launches in September 2026 UTC resolve?
- How many successful SpaceX launches in September 2026 UTC is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is How many successful SpaceX launches in September 2026 UTC settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page. https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=&f=agency_1&tab=