This market resolved: 8 or fewer (99%)
Resolved: Sep 30, 2026, 3:49 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 30, 2026, 11:41 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
8 or fewer99%
90.2%
100.1%
110.1%
120.1%
130.1%
140.4%
15 or more0.4%
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many successful SpaceX launches in October 2026 UTC
Manifold MarketsHow many SpaceX launches in October 2026?
PolymarketHow many SpaceX launches in 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page. https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=&f=agency_1&tab=
- for September 2026, UTC time.
- If that page is demonstrably wrong or out of date, then I will either wait for update or a correct source will be decided upon and used as a replacement.
- A launch is considered successful if it is outlined in green on the linked manifest page.
- Launches outlined with red (failure) or orange (partial failure) will not count as successful.
- (Starship is considered an orbital launch vehicle, regardless of true orbit not being demonstrated.
