PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: No
Resolved: Jun 11, 2026, 9:52 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
No
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
8%
SurpriseProbability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
NoWon
YesLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?
Manifold MarketsDid COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic lab leak by which date?
PolymarketWill the FDA approve retatrutide?
KalshiWill GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
As of market creation, the FDA's expected decision date for the specified application is June 10, 2026.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for Camurus's Oclaiz as a treatment for patients with acromegaly by June 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
- The following constitute qualifying approvals: Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs