PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 57%
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$71
Low liquidityBid / Ask
26.0% / 89.0%
Spread
63.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
1
7d Change
+9.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Aug 13, 26, 6:16 PM UTCOct 2, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
KalshiWhich states will report local cases in the May 2026 Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak
Manifold MarketsEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketWhich countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
KalshiWhich countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
PolymarketEbola pandemic in 2026?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026.
- A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
- A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak.
- A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred.
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.2pt97%
- Yes+0.2pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $35.4K
POLYMARKETEbola pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $759.5K
- 24h Vol
- $4.1K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $3.4K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000+1.0pt97%
- Above 600059%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $3.2K
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+1.0pt94.1%
- Yes-1.0pt5.9%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.6K
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
- $97.8K
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
- FDA decision: Anitocabtagene Autoleucel (anito-cel) by Gilead Sciences (in 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1??
- Polymarket prices Yes at 57% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1? resolve?
- Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1? is scheduled to resolve on October 2, 2026.
- How is Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation.