Current implied probability
OpenAI 100%+0.7ptLeader of 12 outcomes
OpenAI 100%+0.7ptMarket quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.2K
Liquidity
$19.6K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.6 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Sep 28, 26, 6:01 AM UTCOct 6, 26, 4:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026.
- A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026.
- The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
- This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 5, 2026 are first displayed.
- If the figures for the week of October 5, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 9, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026 at that time.
- If no data is available for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".